Framework10 min read01
Likelihood Ratios: How Much Should This Finding Change Your Mind?
A practical guide to one of the key ideas in Bayesian updating—and one of the most useful tools in diagnostic reasoning.
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Decision School
Learning topic
Bayesian Thinking
Build and update clinical probabilities as evidence changes.
PriorsLikelihood RatiosPost-test Probability
Curriculum
Lessons in this topic
Deep Dive4 min02
Base Rates: The Most Ignored Number in Emergency Medicine
why base rates matter and why they are overlooked
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Framework6 min read03
Prior Probability: Where Judgment Begins
Every diagnostic decision starts before the test. The challenge is recognizing—and calibrating—the probability already in your head.
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Curated connections
Perspectives Worth Exploring
Outside ideas connected back to bayesian thinking and better clinical decisions.
Perspectives Worth ExploringWatch
From SOLVED with Mark Manson
Making Your Predictions Explicit
Annie Duke explains on SOLVED with Mark Manson why making predictions explicit creates a feedback loop that helps you improve your decision-making.
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Perspectives Worth ExploringWatch
From TEDxDanubia
How to Make Good Decisions
Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschäppeler explore how information, timing, and reflection shape decisions. This talk provides a useful outside perspective for clinicians who often must act before certainty arrives.
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