Annie Duke explains on SOLVED with Mark Manson why making predictions explicit creates a feedback loop that helps you improve your decision-making.
The act of making it explicit has been shown to make your decisions more accurate.
The BayesRazor connection
This part of the conversation gets at one of the reasons we built BayesRazor. In EM, we are constantly making predictions, but we rarely write them down in a way that lets us learn. Duke’s point is that if we make those calls explicit up front, we give ourselves a chance to get better calibrated over time. That is the core—not pretending we can be certain, but getting more honest and deliberate about uncertainty. BayesRazor is just a tool to make that habit easier in the moment.
watch
This outside perspective is included for reflection on decision-making. It is not clinical guidance, and its inclusion does not imply endorsement of BayesRazor by Annie Duke, Mark Manson, or SOLVED.
From the source
Author, speaker, and decision strategist
Annie Duke writes and teaches about decision-making under uncertainty. A former professional poker player, she is the author of Thinking in Bets, How to Decide, and Quit, and co-founded the Alliance for Decision Education.
Author and host of SOLVED
Mark Manson is a bestselling author whose work takes a candid, evidence-informed approach to personal development. He hosts SOLVED with Mark Manson, a long-form podcast built around deeply researched explorations of major life questions.
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